How to leave while you're ahead
By Bernard Harris

If you observe a typical game for a few hours, you will notice that about half of the players have instances where they are up more than double their initial buy-ins. In fact, many good players will be up four to five times their buy-in at one point. Yet, despite this fact, few players actually cash out with profit.

Why?

Well, if your winnings are due more to skill than luck, then the most probable reason you bust out is simple—as the game progresses, your play changes. It could be due to fatigue, recklessness, or some other factor. But whatever the reason, you are no longer playing in a winning manner.

Before learning tips that will help you leave while you’re ahead, it is important to highlight some of the common factors that degrade your play.

Euphoria: As you win, dopamine is released into the pleasure centers of the brain. This altered state can impair judgment causing you to chase more wins. You may play substandard hands in dangerous situations, relying more on luck than skill. This risky behavior continues until the math catches up with you.

Fatigue: The brain is highly susceptible to fatigue and, over time, your mental acuity degrades. This mental and physical exhaustion can dramatically reduce your cognitive abilities, which in turn, is deadly to your stack.

Recklessness: The more chips you accrue, the more “bullets” you have to fight with. You loosen up and engage in more conflicts while retreating less. Eventually, your disregard for pot odds and basic strategy exhaust your supply of ammunition.

Paranoia: The more chips you accrue, the more you covet them, and your style changes to ultra-tight. You call the flop and turn, but fold on the river (or to any big bet) as you convince yourself that you are up against the nuts. The resultant call-then-fold cycles bleed your stacks dry.

Anger: Anger, like fatigue, is insidious in its ability to disable the reason centers in the brain. You make emotional decisions instead of logical ones, and it is only a matter of time before your angry chips become someone else’s happy ones.

Now that you see some of the factors that can result in poor play, let’s look at some common manifestations. When any of the following scenarios occur, leave immediately!

Misreading your hand: When you mistake four cards for a straight or five red cards for a flush, you should call it a day.

Falling asleep: If you nod off, even for a quick second, go home and get some sleep.

Forgetting what you had: When you can’t remember your cards and have to look three times during a hand to refresh your memory, it is time to go.

Gun shy: You repeatedly encounter situations where you know you must bet, raise, or move all-in, but fear prevents you from pulling the trigger. Poker is war and if you can’t shoot when you know you must, then retreat, regroup, and return another day.

Mucking the winning hand: When you are so focused on a certain hand (e.g. a flush), don’t notice that you’ve made an alternative winning hand, and muck your cards, it is time to go.

Beating yourself up: Whether it was a mistake, a missed opportunity, or being outplayed, you can’t stop thinking (and talking) about a prior hand. Living in the past makes playing in the present impossible. If you can’t walk it off after a few hands, then take a walk.

Throwing a temper tantrum: When you are so angry that you can no longer control yourself, it is time to leave. Period! Throwing cards, threatening other players, or committing any other act denoting a loss of self control is akin to holding a neon sign that reads “free money here.” These actions are beyond tilt, and your chips are on borrowed time if you don’t leave the table immediately.

The above factors and manifestations are the main culprits in why so many decent players bust out. Now, let’s look at some tips that can guard against them and ensure you leave while you’re ahead. Use the tips below in combinations that best match your style, strengths, and weaknesses.

Make a floor: When you are ahead, set an amount that you refuse to fall under. In the event that you hit this floor, you leave. If you buy-in for $400 and find yourself at $1,300, set a floor ($1,000). Thus, if you have a bad run and spiral down to your floor (i.e., $1,000), you are still leaving ($600) ahead. As you win more, raise the floor, but remember— a floor can be raised but never lowered!

Coloring-up: Similar to making a floor, coloring-up (changing to higher denomination chips) is a great way to distinguish “play” chips from “cash out” chips. If you buy-in for $400 and shoot up to $1,300, color-up (e.g. $800). The amount you color-up should leave you with plenty to play with while giving you a nice payday should you have a bad run. Also, it is a great visual indicator of your progress and powerful psychological tool to aid in disciplining yourself. As you win, keep coloring-up. If you slip backwards and blow through your “play” chips, grab those colored-up chips, and enjoy cashing out at the cage.

Analyze your best days and set a win-stop: If you analyze your best days you should notice a ceiling—an amount that you rarely exceed. This ceiling will vary, depending on the game and your abilities. A common ceiling in spread-limit is 7 to 10 times the buy-in. So if the average buy-in is $200, then you should consider calling it a day if you hit $1,400. There are valid arguments against setting a win-stop, but for the majority of recreational players, a win-stop is a great way to lock in a winning day.

When all the fish have been eaten: In almost every game, there are three to five players who should change their names to ATM. A great time to leave while you’re ahead is when all the fish have been eaten and there is nothing but sharks at the table.

The table changed: When the table has permanently shifted to a state that is problematic for your style, then you should leave. Whether you are a rock that has rolled into the world’s tightest table or a bully that has stepped into a kamikaze minefield, why play at a table that is kryptonite to your super style? Take your winnings and come back another day.

Time limits: Study your game and track your winnings over various time periods of play. All things being equal, you should notice a rise in earnings followed by a plateau then a fall. Set a time limit that aligns with your abilities, endurance, and earnings profile. When your time is up, head to the cage.

Resist rounding your stacks: How many fortunes have been lost while trying to win that extra $10 or $20 to round out your stack? Leaving with an atypical amount (e.g., $1,972 instead of $2,000) trains yourself that you are in control, and not the chips. When you are ready to leave, make it a habit to just leave.

Winning the pot of the night: Occasionally, lightning does strike in poker! You’re in a huge five-way pot, everyone is all-in, and when the river comes you win. This is easily the pot of the night and the dealer needs a bulldozer just to push you the chips. Instead of stacking those chips into a castle, you should just rack-em up and leave. Sure, opponents hate hit-and-runs, but those are the same players who often give it all back. Have no shame, take the money and run!